Map Shows House Seats Most Likely to Flip in Congressional Elections

Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of the House of Representatives, viewed as a toss-up by forecasters two weeks before the November 5 election.
Republicans are defending their narrow eight-seat majority, which includes more than a dozen GOP-held seats won by President Joe Biden four years earlier. Like the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, elections experts expect control of Congress to come down to the wire.
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a clear advantage, and both parties are spending heavily to win a majority. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent more than $247 million, while the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has spent $169 million on key House races across the country, according to the nonprofit OpenSecrets.
According to the Cook Political Report, there are 27 toss-up races as of Wednesday. Twelve of those seats are held by Democrats, while 15 are held by Republicans.
Further, it classifies 11 seats as “Lean Democrat” and five as “Lean Republican,” meaning they are “considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.”
This map shows which seats the forecaster views as competitive. Seats considered Lean Democrat or Lean Republican are shaded a more vibrant blue or red, while toss-up seats are shaded a more dull blue or red, based on the incumbent party.
Newsweek reached out to the DCCC and NRCC for comment via email on Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast on Wednesday showed the race for control of the House as a dead heat. Democrats and Republicans won their simulation 50 times each. The average simulation yielded a Democratic majority of one seat, 218 to 217.
Cook has reclassified several races to become more competitive in the past few weeks.
On Tuesday, it moved Arizona’s 2nd District, held by Republican Eli Crane, from “Safe Republican” to “Likely Republican.” Last week, Pennsylvania’s 10th District, where Republican Representative Scott Perry is being challenged by Democrat Janelle Stelson, shifted from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” after a poll showed Stelson leading.
Three other races were also recently moved to more competitive for Democrats.
In Iowa, 1st District Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks is being challenged by Christina Bohannan and 3rd District Republican Zach Nunn is facing Lanon Baccam. Those races went from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
Montana’s 1st District race between GOP Representative Ryan Zinke and Democrat Monica Tranel shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.”
DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton expressed optimism about Democrats’ chances of flipping the House in a statement to Newsweek Wednesday afternoon.
“All cycle long, House Democrats have been running ahead – in the polls, on the ground, and in resources – and that momentum is clear as we head into the final weeks before Election Day,” Shelton said.
The statement continued, “House Republicans have ignored the pocketbook issues most important to working families and have instead embraced an extreme, unpopular agenda. That’s why voters will elect a Democratic majority in November because they know we are fighting to lower costs, defend reproductive freedom, and grow the middle class.”
Incumbents are viewed as favorites in all but one race that have been placed in the “Leans” category, according to Cook.
The exception is New York’s 22nd Congressional District in the Syracuse area. The district is represented by Republican Brandon Williams, who is facing a challenge from Democrat state Senator John Mannion.
Polling on the race, like most House races, remains scant. Only one public poll has been released, conducted by GQR and sponsored by the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC. The poll of 400 likely voters from July 9 to 15 showed Mannion with a 7-point lead, 50 percent to 43 percent.
The district may be more difficult for Republicans because it backed Biden by more than 11 points in 2020. But it is not the GOP-held district that backed Biden by the largest margin.
That would be New York’s 4th Congressional District, where Representative Anthony D’Esposito is facing Democrat Laura Gillen, who formerly served as Hempstead town supervisor. Biden won the district by 14.5 points in 2020. A new poll from Siena College/Newsday showed Gillen leading by 12 points (53 percent to 41 percent). It polled 532 likely voters from October 13 to 17.
In total, New York has five competitive races. In the 17th District, Republican Representative Mike Lawler is facing a challenge from former Representative Mondaire Jones. Representative Marc Molinaro is in a rematch against Josh Riley, the Democrat who ran against him in 2022 in the 19th District.
Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat, is viewed as a slight favorite against Republican Alison Esposito in New York’s 18th District.
Democrats could take back a slight majority by simply sweeping the competitive races in New York and California, two solidly Democratic states where Republicans outperformed expectations in 2022, winning several seats that would usually be expected to lean toward Democrats.
In California, there are five toss-up seats currently held by Republicans and two seats classified as “Lean Democrat.”
Democrat Adam Gray is challenging Representative John Duarte in a Central Valley-based seat, a rematch of the race two years ago, in California’s 13th District. Republican Representative David Valadao is also in a 2022 rematch, facing former Assembly member Rudy Salas.
Three Southern California districts—the 27th, 41st and 47th, held by GOP Representatives Mike Garcia, Michele Steele and Ken Calvert—are viewed as toss-ups. Biden won all but the 41st, a Democratic-trending Palm Springs-based district, in 2020.
The 47th District, vacated by Representative Katie Porter, and 49th District, held by Representative Andy Levin, are viewed as “Lean Democrat.”
A September 14 to 21 poll—conducted by the University of California, California State University Long Beach Center for Urban Politics and Policy and Cal Poly Pomona—showed these races as close.
The poll showed Gray up one point in the 13th District, Salas up three points in the 22nd, Democrat George Whitesides up two points in the 27th, Calvert up one point in the 41st, Democrat Derek Tran up two points in the 45th and Republican Scott Baugh up three points in the 47th.
Most polls released in recent days are internal, which are typically viewed with more scrutiny than nonpartisan surveys by polling experts.
Most campaigns will conduct internal polls but don’t always release them. FiveThirtyEight noted in 2018 that “it’s important to remember that by definition, internal polls are shared by people with an agenda, and you need to take that agenda into account when looking at the results.”
One internal poll of Maine’s Second Congressional District showed Democratic Representative Jared Golden trailing Republican Austin Theriault by two points (47 percent to 45 percent). The poll surveyed 411 likely voters from October 17 to 20. It was conducted by Axis Research and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The race is viewed as one of the closest, as Trump won the district by six points in 2020.
A DCCC poll, conducted among 388 likely voters from October 15 to October 18, showed Republican Representative John James and Democrat Carl Marlinga tied at 47 percent in Michigan’s 10th District. A nonpartisan poll of the race from The Detroit News showed James up three points (47 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 400 likely voters from October 14 to October 18.
Independent polls are showing tight races in some districts where Republicans are favored.
A Christopher Newport University Watson Center for Civic Leadership poll, conducted among 800 likely voters from October 11 to 20, showed Republican Representative Jen Kiggans leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by one point (46 percent to 45 percent) in Virginia’s 2nd District, viewed by Cook as leaning Republican. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
A Monmouth University poll, conducted among 603 registered voters from October 10 to 14, showed Republican Representative Tom Kean leading Democrat Sue Altman in New Jersey’s 7th District by two points (46 percent to 44 percent), also classified as “Lean Republican.” It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
Although the race is classified as “Likely Republican,” meaning the Cook Political Report does not view it as competitive yet, a St. Pete Polls survey of Florida’s 13th District showed Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna tied with Democrat Whitney Fox. The poll surveyed 905 likely voters on October 20.
Unsurprisingly, those districts rated as toss-ups are also producing close polls.
In New Mexico’s 2nd District, Democratic Representative Gabe Vasquez led former GOP Representative Yvette Herrell by four points (49 percent to 45 percent) in an Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling survey conducted among 414 likely voters from October 14 to 16.
In New York’s 19th District, Democrat Riley led Republican Molinaro by four points in a WNYT poll, which surveyed 561 likely voters from October 11 to 16. It had a “credibility interval” of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Update 10/23/24, 5:29 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Viet Shelton and additional information.